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CNN Numerous Republican state legislatures are trying to pass new voter restriction legislation e. Meanwhile, Democrats in Congress are trying to pass laws that expand access to the ballot box. The moves from both camps come after an election with record turnout in Gir there were multiple false charges of fraud by prominent Republicans like former President Donald Trump.

But we should be clear: high turnout had little to do with why Trump ended up being a one-term president. Trump lost because he was an unusually unpopular president, and he likely would have been defeated if turnout looked like it did in Tye the leadup to the election, his approval rating was stuck in the low- to mids.

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The last president to overcome such daunting numbers was Harry Truman in Elections that took place before the coronavirus pandemic ever took hold suggested Trump's Republican Party was in deep trouble. His party lost a Analysis Of The Story Girl And Story of ground relative to in lower turnout special elections during the and period. Even in the special elections ofwhich were weaker for Democrats, the Democrats were still outperforming their baseline. Read More. These elections on the whole didn't have anywhere near the level of mail voting a frequent punching bag for Trump that the election did. In fact, new research from Stanford University suggests the expansion of mail voting had little to do with the higher turnout or with results in The emphasis on the unique environment that led to a lot of early voting by mail in to explain high turnout seems especially strange when considering that had the highest turnout for any midterm in the last century.

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That was well before the coronavirus pandemic and shift to mail voting by a lot of Democrats. What all these elections the specials, midterms and presidential election had in common was an unpopular president leading the Republican Party. Indeed, it's not clear at all to me that the results would have been more info better for the GOP had the turnout look like the election. Remember, that was an election that Trump won.

We can see this from three different sources: the network exit polls, the American National Elections Studies pre-election survey and the final Pew Research Center poll taken with verified voters. In the network exit polls, the Biden vs. Trump margin among those who said they voted in the election was the same among ages 25 and older i.

The state exit polls in the three closest states with a recall vote, Georgia, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, has an average shift of 0 points as well. Finally, in Pew Research Center's final pre-election pollTrump's vote share was a single point higher Biden's remained steady among verified voters than it was among registered voters ages 22 and older. The Pew poll suggested Biden's margin was about the same among midterm voters as it was among all registered voters. All of these shifts were within the margin of error. Most importantly, all of these Analysis Of The Story Girl And Story used different methodologies and arrived at the same conclusion. Now, the election was close enough and the margin of error in this data is wide enough that we can't say what the exact Electoral College result in would have been with level turnout. Future studies with larger sample sizes and voter files can hopefully answer that for sure.

It's unlikely that more data will change the big finding that turnout was not the determinative factor of the result.]